What Do Marketing Scientists Have To Say About Social Media?

This year’s INFORMS Marketing Science Conference paid lots of attention to social media and social networking. Quite a few sessions were devoted to the topic. Here I picked a few presentations with especial relevance to business practice and summarized them below.

1. Freemium model depends on users’ group membership and content contribution.

Presented by Gal Oestreicher-Singer from Tel Aviv University, this research analyzed a large dataset of 150,000 random existing users and a separate group of new subscribers of Last.fm. The authors wanted to find out under what conditions users are more likely to pay for premium services in a freemium model. Results suggest two main factors: (1) group membership and leadership: those functioning as leaders of Last.fm user groups are more likely to pay for a premium account. (2) Content contribution, in this case, posting of journal entries. Those who have written a journal entry on the site are more likely to pay up.  The effects of these factors, the authors found, exceeded the traditionally accepted influence of content consumption and local network size.  The authors also argue that the network position of the user within the community can also affect likelihood to pay. But this area is still being explored.

2. How To receive more incoming social links for your online shop?

In the social networking space for e-commerce, such as eBay, individual merchants can connect with other merchants by building links between their shops. Such incoming links can build traffic and increase business. So how can one increase the likelihood of being linked to?  Andrew Stephen, who recently joined the faculty at INSEAD, reported findings from his dissertation research that answer this question.  His research shows that reciprocity and assortment diversity are the two drivers of incoming links. In other words, merchants are more likely to have outgoing links to those who have incoming links to them, and they are more likely to link to those who have a large assortment of merchandise.

3. Celebrity, offensiveness, and honest labeling of content drive YouTube video success

I was especially excited about this presentation because it partially answers a burning question that has been on my mind for a while: “What makes some YouTube videos more successful than others?” The two presenters, Caroline Wiertz and Thorsten Hennig-Thurau from Cass Business School, City University, London, together with their co-author Michael Paul compared 100 top hit videos with 100 matching “flop” videos that were uploaded on the same day. They found three factors that have the biggest impact on the success of a video: offensiveness of the video content (i.e., controversy factor); featuring or association with a celebrity; and honest labeling of a video content’s via title, tags, and thumbnail. In a separate study, the three researchers tracked the number of views for 360 videos newly uploaded to YouTube over the course of a month. Their results suggest that the drivers of video views are different at different diffusion stages. In the beginning (the 1st day after posting), past channel success drives the number of views for the video. During the following days, however, existing # of views, volume and valence of user comments, and video description (via title, tags, and thumbnail) take over in predicting video popularity. In the final stage of their one-month tracking period, existing # of views and honest labeling become the most important driving factor. Their research findings offer clues to companies as to what to manage and pay attention to when doing viral marketing through YouTube.

4. Negative word-of-mouth effect accentuated by reviewer similarity and brand reputation

Ever wondered why bigger brands suffer huge backlashes from negative word-of-mouth? Debanjan Mitra from University of Florida addressed this question. By looking at book reviews from Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble websites and correlating them with sales rankings, he and his co-authors found that, besides the established finding of negative word-of-mouth having a larger effect on consumers than positive word-of-mouth, the similarity between reviewers and the audience further accentuate the effect. In other words, we are more affected by the negative opinions of people who are just like us. Furthermore, they found that the situation is even worse for higher-reputation brands (e.g., authors with higher ranking books).  Apparently, the higher reputation your brand has, the more you have to lose and the more devastating negative word-of-mouth can be. In the authors’ presentation title, they labeled this effect as “the weakness of strong ties”.

What do you think?  Do you agree with these marketing scientists findings and insights?

Should Twitter Sell?

Partly due to celebrity involvement, Twitter has quickly gained popularity in the last few months. According to eMarketer, various online metrics firms reported an approximately ten-fold increase in unique Twitter visitors from February 2008 to February 2009. With the rise in popularity, news broke out that quite a few major firms, including Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Newscorp, are eyeing to buy out Twitter.

Should Twitter sell out when it is still hot? My answer to this question is no. Here’s why. Twitter, just as Wikipedia and Facebook, didn’t start out as a major corporation. Rather, it is built over time through the participation and faith of its users. What makes Twitter precious in consumers’ mind is the community that it has created. The value of the Twitter brand name is not in the company itself, but in all the people who contribute fantastic and interesting content on the fly and in the way it is able to connect people with each other. Now adding a suit and tie image and a clear profit motive that is usually associated with large corporations, it will simply clash with Twitter’s current brand image and turn off the goodwill it has engendered among its users. Twitter from Microsoft (or Google or News Corp.) just doesn’t sound right.

One might argue that YouTube got bought out by Google and it is still popular. But that acquisition has yet to prove beneficial to Google money-wise. It is estimated that YouTube will lose $470 million in 2009, on sales of $240 million. Plus, it is also facing pressure from Hulu.com, another video website that has successfully struck business deals with major networks recently, including a stake taken by Discovery. Piecing these events together, the future of YouTube is quite uncertain.

Of course, Twitter is going to face the same question too in terms of how it is going to support itself financially if it were to remain independent. To answer that question, one has to look at the value and competency that Twitter possesses. At least two areas emerge. One is information. By millions of people feeding news, facts, and opinions into Twitter in real-time, Twitter has become an information network that is no less powerful than a major news network. This can be powerful knowledge to news organizations (for breaking news), marketers (for customer opinions) and the like. One way for Twitter to make money in this area is perhaps to develop as an information expert, helping these potential beneficiaries extract and analyze the useful data. For example, a platform can be established to combine tweets with Twitter traffic information to better understand what is on the collective mind. A second area that Twitter can explore is its technology expertise. Using the basic Twitter platform, it can develop customized platforms that satisfy companies’ internal messaging needs, similar to what Yammer is doing but perhaps in a more proprietary and customized fashion. Such customized platforms can facilitate efficient and secure communication within an organization (e.g., between salespeople).

Of course, the smart minds at Twitter might think of other ways of making money. But whichever way it ends up making money, I simply do not think it is a good idea for Twitter to sell to any of these large corporations. And the company seems to agree, when Twitter’s co-founder Biz Stone said “We Are Not For Sale”.

Update (March 29, 2010): Recently, Twitter founder Biz Stone was interviewed by CNBC about its business model and strategy:

User-Generated Content Study

I am currently working with Michelle Rogerson on a research project studying the rise of popular user-generated content online.  In particular, we are interested in identifying the reasons why some content (such as some YouTube videos; see Top 10 YouTube videos) gain star status, whereas others are barely paid any attention to.  We surmise that network properties as well as author characteristics both contribute to such contrast in circulation and popularity.  I will talk more about the research project in future blogs.  But right now, as part of the project, we are conducting an exploratory survey of people’s usage and sharing of user-generated content.  We would appreciate it if you could please spare 10 minutes of your time to fill out this short survey.  I will post the findings on my blog once the survey concludes.